Monday, November 17, 2008

2012 Primary Standings (Republican)

No, it's not too early.

1. Newt Gingrich

After the 2008 debacle, the GOP may well overcompensate with the anti-McCain. Gingrich is ideologically pure, fiercely partisan, and perfectly comfortable spitting vile. He also gives a smooth speech and thinks strategically. The exact opposite of McCain.

Of course, he’s also emblematic of everything everyone outside of the Far Right hates about politics. But that may only help him in the primary.

2. Mitt Romney

At the other end of the spectrum, there’s the Mayor of Pandertown. If Obama is crazy popular, the GOP may panic. They’ll ditch the purists for someone they think can appeal to the moderates. And they’ll want someone with deep pockets because the donors aren’t likely to waste their cash against a popular incumbent.

3. Jeb Bush

The Bush name may be mud right now, but hey -- W still won. That means a lot when your party is on the outside of the White House looking in. The GOP needs someone to reunite W’s winning coalition of business and religious factions. Jeb may look like their best shot.

4. Charlie Crist/Tim Pawlenty

Crist screams vice president, so he may run just to up his chances of being picked #2 on the ticket. But as a popular governor of a critical swing state, he may find himself picking up surprising momentum from the non-fundamentalists. Pawlenty is kinda like Crist but without those pesky rumors.

5. Sarah Palin

Can her cult of personality carry her through the primaries? Don’t bet on it. The GOP base may love her folksy nitwittery when she’s opposite a Democrat--but when she’s on stage against the Republican heavyweights, they can’t help but notice she’s ridiculously outmatched.

6. Bobby Jindal

He’s a minority! That makes him just as good as Obama, right? Jindal is a successful and popular governor, so he deserves better than for Republican evangelicals to jump on his bandwagon just because of his skin color.

7. Kay Bailey Hutchison

Sarah Palin may inspire Hutchinson to run just so that nutjob isn’t the only example of a Republican woman that America gets to see. It also may get Hutchinson on someone’s VP list.

8. Mike Huckabee

His loyal followers will be enough to keep him in the race a good long time but not enough to make him a serious contender.

9. Bill Frist

If Bill Frist wins the governor’s mansion in 2010, he’ll be eyeing the White House in 2016 immediately. If he wins huge, he may think about capitalizing on that momentum right away. Either to position himself for 2016 or to be on someone’s VP list.

10. Rudy Giuliani

He’ll run to stay relevant. He’s not going to be a factor.

11. Fred Thompson

Thompson may have a big enough ego to let himself get “drafted” again. But the GOP has seen this movie before--and they walked out in the first 15 minutes last time.

No comments: