Okay, Here's the Plan...

What’s the Republican game plan for winning back the Senate? We now have the answer. The NRSC just threw its cards on the table for everybody to see.

In fact, Sen. Lamar Alexander was shouting it out with a bullhorn in yesterday’s press release when he said:

Yesterday a member of our Republican side moved his desk to the other side, potentially giving that side of the aisle 60 votes and raising the prospect that we would have no check and balance on one-party rule – the genuine risk of what de Tocqueville called ‘tyranny of the majority.’

(emphasis mine)

And:

And in addition, there is the prospect of no check and balance on one-party rule, which risks what the perceptive young Frenchman, Alexis de Tocqueville, said in the early 1800s was the greatest threat to the new American Democracy: the ‘tyranny of the majority.’"

Of course, I didn’t realize that what I was hearing was the NRSC’s exciting new 2010 strategy until I heard pretty much the same catch phrases from NRSC head Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX):

the complete absence of any checks and balances in Washington could have a significant impact on next year's midterm elections.

And:

...the dangerous ramifications of unbridled, one-party rule in Washington. Come November 2010, this may ultimately be viewed as a positive development in the Republican Party's climb back to power.

Think I’m putting two and two together and getting twenty? Nope, Sen. Cornyn assures us in plain, straight-forward English that this is, in fact, the big plan:

This is a message our Senate candidates will carry across our great country as we work to rebuild the Republican Party in November 2010.

Good luck with that.

Yes, it’s true that voters often check the power of the executive branch by putting the other party in charge of the legislative branch, or vice versa, but it’s not because they consciously think, “Hey, I’m going check the power of the executive branch by putting the other party in charge of the legislative branch.”

You can't just say "vote for me because I'm in the opposite party" and expect to win. You actually have to play out the election scenario that leads to that outcome, not just announce it as a reason in and of itself.

It's just as ridiculous as if the Republicans strategy was to straight out say, "vote for us because it's an off-year election and the Democrats hold the White House." That's what voters usually do for a variety of reasons, but not because they actually say to themselves, "you know what, I'm going to vote for the party that doesn't hold the White House."

I should also point out that the NRSC strategy is essentially to tell the voters that they’ve been having their way a little too much and it’s time to let Republicans stand in their way.

I wholeheartedly encourage them to pursue this strategy right up until election day. But they couldn’t really be that stupid, could they?

PS: Great big hat tip to Whiskey Fire for collecting those Cornyn quotes -- and for pointing that’s not what "checks and balances" means. It’s all about the three branches of government keeping each other in check, not the two political parties.

Senator Bush?

Brother Jeb is looking to run in Florida now that Sen. Mel Martinez has announced his retirement. That’s bad news for Democrats. With Martinez in the race, Florida was the #1 most likely take-over for the Democrats. With Bush, I’d say it leans Republican.

Trivia: The name “Jeb” comes from his initials – John Ellis Bush.

You Can’t Fire Me - I Quit!

Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) is so ridiculously unpopular that he’s ready to quit his job. The idea that he could win re-election in 2010 is a joke, so apparently Martinez is going to be beat voters to the punch. He’ll resign now so that Republican Governor Charlie Crist can appoint a replacement to run as an incumbent in 2010.

Remember, Martinez is the same guy Bush named as head of the Republican Party but got the boot after only 10 months at the job. Heck of a job, Marty!

Update: During the official announcement today, Martinez made no mention of leaving office early – only that he won’t seek re-election. We’ll have to wait and see if that was just a baseless rumor or a trial balloon.

Maybe Hillary Should Reconsider

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) scores an approval rating of just 38% in his home state and he’s polling well under 50% in his 2010 re-election bid. If the Democrats have to pick a new Majority Leader in two years (and I won’t shed any tears if they do), then Hillary Clinton may wish she were still in the Senate.

Big News from Arizona

Wow, great news for new NRSC head Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) as he struggles to avoid a bloodbath in the 2010 Senate races. Sen. John McCain has announced he will seek reelection in Arizona, and his most dangerous potential challenger (superstar Governor Janet Napolitano) looks like she’s leaving for DC to be part of the Obama Administration.

Unnamed sources say Napolitano will be our new Secretary of Homeland Security. Sounds like just about the worst job in the world to me. That Department is an absolute mess after being established by the bungling dolts in Bush Administration.

On to 2010!

The rapidly shrinking band of Republican survivors in the U.S. Senate have tapped Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) to lead their GOP’s senatorial campaign efforts for 2010. As the new head of the NRSC, Cornyn will be in charge of recruiting challengers, protecting incumbents, and coordinating the various campaigns’ strategies and messaging.

The 2010 map looks absolutely awful Republicans. Just miserable. I almost feel sorry for them. Cornyn is sure to find himself fighting to limit the damage rather than make any gains.

Here’s a quick look at seats Democrats have a good shot at stealing in 2010:

1. Sen. Mel Martinez, Florida – who won with just 49% of the vote in 2004 and is already polling behind several Democratic competitors.

2. Sen. George Voinovich, Ohio – who has a pitiful 42% approval rating and is already polling behind a handful of potential Democratic challengers.

3. Sen. David Vitter, Louisiana – who really, really likes prostitutes. Will he seek reelection? Can he win the GOP primary? (If Vitter is not the candidate, this race may fall off the radar.)

4. Sen. Kit Bond, Missouri – who is already polling well under 50% against several big-name Democratic competitors.

5. Sen. Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania – who is planning to seek reelection at age 80 despite his state being seriously in the blue column at this point.

6. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, Alaska – who won with just 49% of the vote in 2004.

7. Sen. John McCain, Arizona – who could face insanely popular Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano if he decides to seek reelection.

8. Sen. Jim Bunning, Kentucky – who won with just 51% of the vote in 2004 and vows to seek reelection despite signs of severe age-related mental impairment. (I don’t expect him to be the candidate, so this race is likely to drop off the radar.)

9. Sen. Judd Gregg, New Hampshire – who saw fellow NH Senator John Sununu booted from his seat earlier this month.

10. Sen. Richard Burr, North Carolina – who saw fellow NC Senator Elizabeth Dole booted from her seat earlier this month. (Former UT QB and current Congressman Health Shuler may be the Democratic candidate.)

11. Sen. Chuck Grassley, Iowa – who Democrats hope will retire at age 77 (otherwise he’s a sure bet for reelection).

12. Sen. John Thune, South Dakota – who beat Tom Daschle with just 51% of the vote in 2004. (But SD is a red state and Thune is now the incumbent, so my hopes are not high.)

And those are just the competitive races. The Democrats will shocked if they only hold 60 seats in the next Senate.

UPDATE: If Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D) gets in the race for Senate seat currently held by the retiring Sam Brownback, you can add a 13th race to this list.